Topic: Probability

14 chapters across the catalog

A Sally
Episode 1547 1:02:31 - 1:06:54

1547: A Sally

Privacy Laws and Honeypot Operations

The claim that government agencies cannot enter private chat rooms without probable cause is dismissed as a lie intended to deceive the public. Analysts suggest that there is no true expectation of privacy on the internet and that the involvement of organizations like Bellingcat helps the government bypass legal hurdles. The narrative is framed as part of a "honeypot" scheme to monitor whistleblowers and foreign spies.

Digital Dementia
Episode 1542 25:40 - 28:02

1542: Digital Dementia

AI Probability Calculations, Andrew Yang, False Idols

The hosts argue that AI is merely performing probability calculations based on large language models, similar to how chess computers operate. They criticize the elevation of figures like Andrew Yang and Steve Wozniak as "intellectual giants" in the AI debate. The segment characterizes the current AI movement as a "false idol" replacing previous scientific trends.

Woke Waiver
Episode 1476 10:14 - 14:26

1476: Woke Waiver

Department of Justice Search Warrant Standards, Merrick Garland Approval

Former Deputy Attorney General Donald Ayer explains the high legal standards required for the Department of Justice to seek a search warrant against a former president. The process involves intense scrutiny and probable cause of criminality, necessitating approval from the highest levels of the FBI and DOJ. Attorney General Merrick Garland is identified as the official who would have ultimately signed off on the unprecedented legal action.

Attribution Science
Episode 1363 43:25 - 47:06

1363: Attribution Science

The Guardian, Vaccine Breakthrough Deaths, Probable Cases

The Guardian reported that a majority of recent COVID-19 deaths in England occurred among vaccinated individuals, a phenomenon described as an expected outcome of an effective but imperfect vaccine in a highly vaccinated population. Additionally, health agencies are increasingly using "probable cases" in their reporting, which critics argue may include false positives or standard influenza cases.

White Tears
Episode 1256 25:26 - 27:53

1256: White Tears

Collin County Texas, COVID-19 Probable Case Definitions

A May 18th Collin County City Council meeting revealed that the Texas Department of State Health Services adopted a "probable case" definition for COVID-19. Under these rules, individuals in contact with a single confirmed case can be added to the official case count without being tested themselves. This change in reporting methodology is cited as a primary driver for the reported "surge" in Texas.

VAT Camel
Episode 1160 2:30:14 - 2:33:41

1160: VAT Camel

Jeffrey Epstein 2009 Deposition, Physical Descriptions

A leaked 2009 deposition of Jeffrey Epstein features a lawyer asking about a witness's description of Epstein's anatomy as "egg-shaped." Epstein's legal team immediately objected to the line of questioning, leading to a brief adjournment of the proceedings.

Warehouse of Souls
Episode 802 1:27:00 - 1:30:05

802: Warehouse of Souls

Fourth Amendment, Probable Cause Fishing Expedition

Legal experts argue that the FBI's demand for Apple to unlock the San Bernardino shooter's phone constitutes a "fishing expedition" rather than a standard search based on probable cause. Because the suspect is deceased and the government is looking for unknown potential crimes, critics claim the Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure are being bypassed.

Win by a Gyp
Episode 690 1:45:27 - 1:47:50

690: Win by a Gyp

Climate Probability vs Fact, Scientific Methodology and Political Rhetoric

The discussion continues regarding the discrepancy between NOAA and NASA temperature data. The hosts highlight that the ranking of "record years" is highly sensitive to methodology and coverage. They criticize the "fair bit of confidence" expressed by scientists when their own data shows it is more likely that 2014 was NOT the warmest year on record.

Imperial News
Episode 673 1:04:38 - 1:08:09

673: Imperial News

Random Number Three, Coincidence and Hillary Clinton

John C. Dvorak discusses the "random number three" phenomenon after receiving two identical donation amounts of $234.56 back-to-back. The segment includes a sound bite of Hillary Clinton's "What difference does it make?" testimony and a mention of the Luck Dragon from Zero Hedge.

Episode 552 1:21:29 - 1:25:33

552: Almost Certain = Fact!

Climate Model Simulations and Probability Scales

The hosts examine the methodology of the IPCC report, which relies heavily on computer simulations and "qualitative levels of confidence." They explain that the widely cited "95% certainty" figure is an extrapolation of the term "extremely likely" rather than a direct statistical fact. They argue the report is based on consensus and agreement rather than definitive proof.

Episode 523 1:07:29 - 1:11:09

523: by Law and by Rule

Obama Explains FISA Warrants and Wiretaps

President Obama claims the NSA cannot listen to phone calls or "target" emails without a court order based on probable cause. The hosts argue this is a deceptive "theater of the mind" that ignores the fact that data is already recorded and stored for future retrieval. They emphasize that the government simply retrieves stored data rather than setting up traditional wiretaps.

Rotational Deployment
Episode 357

357: Rotational Deployment

Border Patrol Checkpoint, Texas Relocation Tribulations

A host describes a relocation to Austin, Texas, involving a confrontation at a highway border patrol checkpoint on I-10. The account details a drug dog's false positive on a vehicle containing wine and plants, leading to a search and a temporary detention. The narrative highlights the use of prison cells for restroom breaks and the perceived lack of Fourth Amendment protections at internal checkpoints.

Furries Forever
Episode 104 27:16 - 29:21

104: Furries Forever

Stephen Colbert in Iraq, Zoology Pronunciation

Stephen Colbert traveled to Iraq to film episodes of "The Colbert Report" for US troops, featuring an interview with the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister. The hosts notice that the official also mispronounced "zoology" while discussing his background in probability. They debate the correct pronunciation of the field, noting that "zoology" is often corrected to "zo-ology" in academic settings.