Topic: Stats

The Council on Criminal Justice reports a 20% drop in murders across 40 large U.S. cities, potentially reaching the lowest rate in a century. Mainstream media analysis attributes the decline to a "return to normal" following the COVID-19 pandemic. Skeptics question the logic of comparing current trends to a century-long baseline based solely on the end of the pandemic.

Download statistics from the OP3 open-source system show that 11% of No Agenda listeners use the show's website, while 17% use Podverse. The hosts discuss the decline of traditional podcast apps due to "inbox fatigue" and the shift toward streaming. Modern apps like Podverse are recommended for their ability to receive "bat signal" notifications for live broadcasts.

James Cridland of Podnews developed a calculator to compare podcast statistics from the OP3 platform against Netflix's internal viewing metrics. Analysis suggests the No Agenda show has a larger audience than 93% of Netflix content, though the subscription-based streaming model remains difficult for competitors to replicate.

A 2017 article from "Stat News" is revisited, revealing that Moderna faced significant safety hurdles and technical failures with its mRNA technology years before the pandemic. The report suggests that the COVID-19 crisis served as a "miraculous Hail Mary" for the company, which had previously struggled to produce viable results for Wall Street investors.

A report aired on NPR, produced in partnership with Stat News, discusses Texas legislation aimed at banning gender-affirming care for minors. The segment features arguments that such care is "medically necessary" and that weaning children off puberty blockers is not based on science. Critics of the report point to its scripted nature and the influence of its owner, John Henry, and his ties to tech elites like Eric Schmidt.

Parody songs warn that "the worst is yet to come" and that lockdowns are a tool to nullify freedom. Lyrics describe "cooking up" vaccines and jacking up statistics to ensure compliance. The "neighborhood" theme emerges, with songs asking who has the "Rona" and promoting the "COVID bus" program. The segment introduces the concept of a "passport of a dream" or vaccine passport.

CNN's Anderson Cooper marked the 14th anniversary of the Virginia Tech shooting while reporting on recent violence in Atlanta and Indianapolis. Critics noted that media narratives often ignore long-term statistics showing that overall gun violence in the U.S. has significantly decreased since the 1980s. The segment argued that networks like CNN focus on emotional "shockwaves" to drive viewership rather than providing historical context.

Prior to the recent NIH success, Remdesivir faced negative press following a leaked video from the University of Chicago and reports on the health news site STAT. Initial interpretations of the data were considered disappointing, causing Gilead's stock to sink. Critics point out that the recovery time improvement now being celebrated was previously dismissed as statistically insignificant "office chatter."

The segment covers the environmental impact of mining neodymium for wind turbine magnets, noting the production of radioactive waste. Shifting to the US economy, the hosts discuss rising gas prices in Texas and argue that real inflation is closer to 10% based on "Shadow Stats" rather than official government figures.

Statistician John Williams of ShadowStats explains how the U.S. government altered the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation in the 1980s to lower reported inflation. He details how Alan Greenspan introduced "substitution," assuming that if steak becomes too expensive, consumers will buy chicken, thus maintaining their standard of living. The hosts argue this manipulation allows the government to reduce Social Security cost-of-living adjustments while ignoring the actual rise in expenses.

Visual evidence from downtown Los Angeles and Oakland reveals a massive increase in homeless encampments, with thousands of people living in tents along city streets and underpasses. Despite official government reports of low unemployment, alternative metrics like Shadow Stats suggest a much higher actual unemployment rate of approximately 22%, reflected in the growing number of displaced individuals.

Patreon secured $60 million in Series B funding, raising concerns about future fee increases and creator independence. Meanwhile, hosting provider Libsyn is updating its statistics reporting to comply with new IAB standards, which may result in lower reported download numbers for many podcasts.

The hosts criticize the involvement of young children in political protests, labeling it a form of "child abuse." The conversation shifts to the U.S. unemployment rate, contrasting the official 4.9% figure with "Shadow Stats" estimates of 22-23% to explain why so many people have time to protest.

A comparison of Boeing 747 prices from 1970 to 2015 reveals a significant gap between government inflation data and real-world costs. While a 1970 list price of $24 million should equate to $146 million today according to the CPI, the actual selling price is approximately $357 million. This discrepancy suggests that official government inflation numbers are significantly understated.

John C. Dvorak argues that the $15 minimum wage is a "scam" because, when adjusted for real inflation and the 1961 dollar value, the wage should actually be between $25 and $40. He contends that the government and corporations are using the $15 figure to distract from the massive loss of purchasing power over the last 50 years.

The hosts dispute official government figures regarding a 6% unemployment rate, citing Shadow Stats data that suggests real unemployment is closer to 25%. They criticize PBS NewsHour's Gwen Ifill for dismissing public concerns about the economy as mere "perception." Additionally, they react to Van Jones' comments regarding the racial demographics of the 2014 electorate.

The December jobs report showed only 74,000 jobs created, far below economist expectations, yet the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. This drop is attributed to over 500,000 people leaving the workforce entirely rather than finding employment. According to Shadow Stats, which uses older government calculation methods, the true unemployment rate remains near 23.5%, contradicting the official narrative of a robust recovery.

The hosts explain why they do not track listener numbers or demographics, rejecting the traditional advertising model. They credit artist Joshua Pettigrew for the episode artwork and introduce the "Value-for-Value" funding system.

The hosts analyze the August jobs report, which showed an unemployment rate of 7.3%. They contrast the official government figures with "Shadow Stats" data, which places true unemployment closer to 24%. The discussion focuses on the rise of low-wage, part-time work and compares the U.S. labor market to the German "social contract" model of reduced working hours.

The Federal Reserve has lowered its job growth expectations, suggesting that only 35,000 jobs per month will be needed to maintain the labor market through the end of the decade. This is contrasted with "Shadow Stats" data, which places real unemployment near 25%. Most new job creation is identified in the low-wage food services sector rather than manufacturing.