Topic: Irgc

European leaders are scheduled to meet with President Zelensky in London to discuss the ongoing conflict with Russia. Meanwhile, reports from Iran indicate widespread student protests against the regime, with many women appearing in public without hijabs. In the U.S., Texas oil producers are reopening capped wells to meet rising demand despite increased operational costs.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly reimposed restrictions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting commercial vessels. Reports indicate that Indian-flagged tankers were ordered to turn around despite carrying Iranian oil, suggesting a possible extortion scheme involving transit tolls. The U.S. maintains a red line regarding freedom of movement in the waterway.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besant announces Operation Economic Fury, a coordinated effort to block payments to the Iranian state and target IRGC accounts. The United States is prepared to apply secondary sanctions against countries and companies that continue to purchase Iranian oil or hold Iranian funds in their banks. This financial strategy is described as the economic equivalent of kinetic military activities.

Following the deaths of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and advisor Ali Larijani in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as a primary figure in the Iranian regime. A former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Mayor of Tehran, Ghalibaf is reportedly viewed by some in the Trump administration as a potential future partner. Despite his public anti-U.S. rhetoric, reports suggest he has maintained back-channel contact with U.S. officials during the war.

Military escalations in the Middle East have resulted in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, including a medical research center in Tehran and a critical bridge in Khoraj. The IRGC issued a defiant statement claiming Western intelligence underestimates Iranian military capabilities, while reports of protests in Iraq remain unverified by video evidence.

Reports from the Middle East suggest the Iranian regime may have already collapsed internally, with the IRGC potentially operating a "puppet" leadership. While some regional voices advocate for a "chemotherapy" approach of continuous strikes to ensure total collapse, others believe the removal of sanctions could lead to a grassroots revolution fueled by social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok. Pakistan and China are currently positioned as potential mediators in the negotiation process.

The use of Iranian Shahed drones has created an economic imbalance in the conflict, as the low-cost "modern V1" units are expensive to intercept. While a drone costs approximately $75,000 to manufacture, the missiles used to shoot them down can cost between $330,000 and $1 million. This disparity raises concerns about the long-term financial sustainability of defending against swarming drone attacks.

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi spoke at CPAC, urging a clean break with the current Iranian regime and labeling the IRGC a "poisonous ideology of terror." Pahlavi argued that the Islamic Republic is incapable of reform and warned against artificial negotiations that only buy time for the regime. The event saw significant support from the Persian-American community, many of whom expressed regret over the 1979 revolution.

Speaker Mike Johnson distinguishes between a regional military buildup and "boots on the ground," suggesting the presence of forces serves as a diplomatic bargaining chip. General Steve Anderson warns that the IRGC consists of 200,000 committed fighters who will utilize asymmetric capabilities, including mines and homemade cruise missiles. Speculation arises that the U.S. may be negotiating with a renegade IRGC faction to secure oil exports.

The conflict in the Middle East is analyzed through the lens of the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement and the subsequent artificial creation of modern borders. The discussion highlights the long-standing tribal and religious tensions that were exacerbated by European colonial interests. The IRGC is characterized as a primary destabilizing force that has funded global terrorism, necessitating a decisive military response to protect international interests.

The hosts analyze media coverage of a near-total internet blackout in Iran, contrasting CNN's reporting with independent accounts. While mainstream outlets report massive casualties during protests, Mimi notes that recent military actions have shifted toward "surgical strikes" against specific targets. They discuss the difficulty of obtaining accurate information from within the country due to the IRGC's brutal crackdown.

Bloomberg reports reveal that Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Supreme Leader, holds extensive luxury property across Europe through a shadowy businessman named Ali Ansari. While Trump has mentioned him as a potential successor, many Iranian-Americans and UK-based dissidents oppose any member of the Khamenei family. The younger Khamenei is a member of the IRGC and was previously passed over for succession by his father to avoid the appearance of hereditary rule.

The discussion shifts to China's $400 billion investment in Iran and the potential use of Iran as a testing ground for Chinese "carrier killer" missiles. Reports suggest that supersonic or hypersonic weaponry may have targeted U.S. naval assets. The economic impact of drone warfare is highlighted, noting the high cost of anti-missile interceptors compared to inexpensive Iranian-backed drones.

Kyan Tajbakhsh of Columbia University explains the formation of a three-member transitional council following the reported assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader. An 88-member panel of clerics is tasked with selecting a new leader amidst a potential power struggle between the regime and internal protesters. The analysis suggests the IRGC or military may ultimately dictate the new leadership structure.

Reports from independent streamers like 2CTousi TV claim that major Iranian cities, including Mashhad and Karaj, have fallen to anti-Islamic revolutionaries. There are unconfirmed reports of IRGC defections and plans for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to flee to Moscow. While Russian media reportedly mentioned an imminent regime collapse, Western mainstream outlets have largely ignored the story, leading to questions about the authenticity of the uprising.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz discussed the possibility of direct military action against Iran if they continue supporting Houthi terrorists. The administration maintains that all options are on the table to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The strategy focuses on neutralizing threats to the global economy and preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the Foreign Minister died in a helicopter crash in a remote mountainous region, an event officially attributed to bad weather. However, alternative theories suggest internal sabotage by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to clear the path for Supreme Leader Khamenei's son to succeed him. Reports indicate the VIP helicopter was swapped for an older model without a functioning transponder at the last minute.

John Kirby explains that the week-long delay in retaliatory strikes was due to target development and poor weather conditions for manned aircraft. He clarifies that while the U.S. has communicated with Iran in the past, there are currently no direct messaging channels being used to de-escalate the current conflict. The administration maintains that the strikes send a "strong signal" to the IRGC and its proxies.

General Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Iranian Quds Force, was killed in a U.S. drone strike at Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020. Media portrayals of Soleimani varied wildly, with some analysts comparing him to James Bond or Charles de Gaulle, while others labeled him a "bonehead." President Donald Trump stated the action was taken to stop a war rather than start one, despite the deployment of 3,500 additional troops to the region.

The Washington Post reported that President Trump approved offensive cyber strikes against Iranian computer systems used for missile launches. Former Homeland Security Advisor Thomas Bossert, now an ABC News analyst and Atlantic Council fellow, commented on the operation's role in defending shipping lanes. The hosts identify Bossert as a "spook" and a placeholder for the deep state, noting his departure from the administration coincided with John Bolton's arrival.