Topic: Temperature Change

The Mediterranean Sea reportedly hit a record median surface temperature of 28.9 degrees Celsius, just 0.2 degrees higher than the previous year. The hosts mock the media's insistence that beachgoers could "sense" this fractional difference and criticize the tendency to attribute every minor event or personal inconvenience to "climate change."

The Siberian town of Verkhoyansk recorded a temperature of 100 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest ever recorded in the Arctic Circle. Meteorologists noted that a nearby weather balloon measured 70 degrees a mile up in the atmosphere, supporting the surface reading. While the event is linked to climate change, the hosts debate the mathematical relationship between altitude and temperature drop.

CBS News reported that climate change is causing record-high pollen counts and longer allergy seasons. However, NOAA data from rural monitoring stations suggests that 2018 was slightly colder than 2002, and early 2019 saw significant cold temperature anomalies that contradict the warming narrative.

A producer explains that the 2030 deadline frequently cited by climate activists is significant because major Western climate models begin to diverge sharply at that point. The discussion suggests that China's commitment to the Paris Accords only begins after 2030 because they anticipate the models' predictive failures will be evident by then.

The hosts investigate the claim that 2014 was the "warmest year on record." They analyze a slide from a NOAA and NASA webinar showing that the probability of 2014 being the warmest year was only 48% for NOAA and 38% for NASA. They argue that the media and the President presented these uncertain probabilities as definitive scientific facts.

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed 2014 was the warmest year on record, a point emphasized by President Obama. However, GISS Director Gavin Schmidt later admitted there was only a 38% certainty for this claim due to a margin of error of 0.1 degrees Celsius, which exceeds the reported 0.02-degree temperature increase. The discussion questions the accuracy of global temperature measurements dating back to 1880.

Ralph Reed appears on Bill Maher's "Overtime" to argue that global mean surface temperatures have not increased since 2000, citing NOAA data. Bill Maher and Anthony Weiner dismiss Reed's claims, with Maher calling the statistics "bullshit." The hosts analyze the exchange as an example of the highly polarized and emotional nature of the climate debate.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a state of the climate report identifying November 2012 as the fifth hottest November on record. The report noted it was the 333rd consecutive month with global temperatures above the 20th-century average. The hosts highlight the recurrence of the number 333 as a potential signal from elite organizations.