Topic: Andrew Rasiulis

Canadian defense expert Andrew Rasiulis provides an analysis of the Ukraine conflict, suggesting that Russia is gearing up for a major fall offensive to force a victory before its economy suffers from sanctions. He notes that the "Coalition of the Willing" plan is a non-starter for Moscow and that the Russians currently hold the stronger hand in negotiations.

Canadian defense analyst Andrew Rasiulis explained that the US has adopted the Russian position that peace negotiations must precede a ceasefire. He noted that both sides are betting on the other's economic or military exhaustion by 2026. Despite Western sanctions, the Russian economy has remained resilient by pivoting trade to India and China and developing internal industries for consumer goods.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump signaled that the US may abandon its role as a peace broker in Ukraine if progress is not made within days. Military analyst Andrew Rasiulis explains that the proposed US deal involves Russia keeping held territory and Ukraine remaining outside of NATO. Rasiulis argues that the world has shifted from a "liberal rules-based order" back to traditional Realpolitik and balance-of-power dynamics.

Analysis from the CBC suggests Donald Trump is moving U.S. foreign policy away from the "liberal rules-based international order" toward a transactional, "America First" model. This shift mirrors the isolationist period between the Civil War and World War I, focusing on financial payback and national interests over the promotion of global democracy. World leaders are reportedly shocked by the abandonment of traditional post-1945 diplomatic norms.

Retired defense official Andrew Rasiulis analyzes the failure of the Minsk II agreements and the likelihood of Ukraine ceding territory, including Crimea and the land bridge. The discussion focuses on the spectrum of security guarantees that might replace NATO membership for Ukraine.