Topic: Geneva Agreement

Sir Tony Brenton, former UK ambassador to Russia, warns that Ukraine is sliding toward a civil war and that Western sanctions are "self-indulgent and irrelevant." Brenton argues that Russia does not want to invade Ukraine because it would lead to a costly shooting war and responsibility for a bankrupt territory. He suggests that the U.S. and EU must restrain the Kiev authorities and engage in constructive dialogue with Vladimir Putin to avoid a total collapse of the region.

The highly touted Geneva Agreement on Ukraine is revealed to be a mere four-paragraph document that lacks concrete enforcement mechanisms. The agreement calls for the disarmament of illegal groups, the vacation of seized buildings, and a leading role for the OSCE in monitoring de-escalation. Adam Curry critiques the document as "vapor," noting that it provides little more than a diplomatic smokescreen while tensions continue to rise on the ground.

The April 17th Geneva Agreement intended to stabilize Ukraine is reportedly failing as both sides accuse the other of non-compliance. John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov remain at odds over the disarming of ultra-nationalist groups in Kiev. Meanwhile, the IMF is negotiating a $27 billion bailout for Ukraine, much of which is needed to cover energy debts owed to Russia.