Topic: Death Models

The WHO reported a global death rate of 3.4% for COVID-19, noting it was deadlier than the seasonal flu. A Harvard expert provided a projection that 40% to 70% of the world's adult population could eventually be infected. The expert noted that many cases might be asymptomatic, which would lower the overall fatality rate among the total infected population.

A 2007 investigative report by CBC's Kelly Crowe revealed that official flu death statistics in Canada are based on mathematical models rather than actual body counts. The report found that deaths from heart and lung disease are often categorized as "possible flu deaths" to encourage vaccine uptake. The hosts use this to illustrate long-standing issues with the veracity of public health data.

The Washington Post and Democracy Now! continue to report rising death tolls and hospitalizations across nine states, with projections from the IHME reaching 145,000 deaths by August. The hosts express deep distrust in these mathematical models, drawing a parallel to the perceived unreliability of global warming data.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar appeared on Fox & Friends to address reports of a CDC and FEMA draft predicting 3,000 daily deaths by June 1, 2020. Azar dismissed the figures as "draft initial projections" that had not been reviewed by the White House Coronavirus Task Force. The discussion highlights public confusion caused by the proliferation of conflicting scientific models used to justify economic shutdowns.