6 chapters across the catalog
University of Washington COVID Model, Face Mask Projections
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington has released a new model predicting 300,000 U.S. deaths by December. The model claims that 66,000 lives could be saved if 95% of the population wears face masks. The hosts dismiss the model as "influential bullcrap," questioning the scientific validity of such specific behavioral projections.
Media Death Toll Projections and Global Warming Parallel
The Washington Post and Democracy Now! continue to report rising death tolls and hospitalizations across nine states, with projections from the IHME reaching 145,000 deaths by August. The hosts express deep distrust in these mathematical models, drawing a parallel to the perceived unreliability of global warming data.
The hosts critique the shifting data models used by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, noting that initial predictions of 2 million deaths have been revised down to 60,000. Donald Trump is seen responding to CNN's Jim Acosta regarding these downward revisions. The discussion highlights the influence of the Bill Gates-backed IHME model on national policy.
Dr. Birx on Model Validation, Behavioral Change Impacts
Dr. Deborah Birx explains that the current range of mortality projections results from "models of models" and comparisons with Italy and Spain. She attributes the declining numbers to the extraordinary behavioral changes and mitigation efforts of the American people. The hosts express skepticism, suggesting the models themselves were fundamentally flawed from the beginning.
Chris Murray, IHME Model Assumptions and Social Distancing
Chris Murray of the IHME explains on CNN that his model's numbers are dropping because hospitals are admitting fewer people and using fewer ventilators than expected. He emphasizes that his projection of 60,000 deaths assumes social distancing remains in place through the first week of June. Bill Gates appears in a clip praising Dr. Fauci and the utility of these models for public awareness.
The White House task force has shifted its reliance from the discredited Imperial College model to data provided by Christopher Murray at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME is funded primarily by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, leading to concerns about the centralization of pandemic data. Dr. Anthony Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx have transitioned their public projections to align with these new Gates-funded supercomputer models.
